The Number That Tells the Story

What Happened

Transaction volume roared back in 2015. Single-family sales jumped 15% to 1,089 homes—adding 145 transactions over the prior year and marking the strongest residential volume since the pre-recession peak. Condominium sales held steady at 1,199 units (essentially flat), while land transactions slipped 7% to 154 lots. The combined residential and condo volume of 2,288 sales represented a healthy, active market.

Price appreciation, however, downshifted to a crawl. The residential median inched up just 2% to $580,000, while the average actually declined 2% to $855,507—reflecting a shift in sales mix rather than weakness. Condo medians slipped 1% to $410,000 with averages up just 1%. Land medians fell 14% to $447,650, though average prices rose 23% on the strength of several high-end Wailea parcels. After two years of double-digit gains, the market was digesting its appreciation.

Total dollar volume told the positive story: residential sales generated $931.6 million (+13%), condos held at $763.8 million (+1%), and land reached $136.4 million (+14%). More transactions at stable prices meant more total activity—a healthy sign of sustainable demand. Inventory remained balanced: homes at 695, condos at 951, land at 370. Absorption rates tightened for residential (7.6 months) while loosening slightly for condos (9.4 months).

Distressed sales continued their fade into irrelevance: REO and short sales fell to 11.8% of residential transactions, 6.6% for condos, and just 3.9% for land. Cash buyers remained active at 36.4% of transactions—still dominant, but down from 42% the prior year. RAM noted a potential headwind: the Canadian dollar had weakened to .71 US, which "may motivate Canadian investors to sell rather than buy." Currency dynamics were joining the list of market influences.

Wailea & Mākena

The luxury market continued its steady performance. Single-family sales held at 27 units with a median of $1,900,000 (flat year-over-year) and average prices climbing to $3.93 million (+27%). Condo activity increased to 111 sales (+21%), with the median essentially unchanged at $1,026,880 (+1%) and averages at $1.56 million. The resort corridor wasn't accelerating, but it wasn't retreating either—a stable luxury market finding its post-recovery baseline.

What It Meant for Buyers

The price pause created breathing room for buyers who had been chasing a moving target. Multiple offers remained common on well-priced properties, but the frenzy had moderated. Cash remained king—still over a third of all transactions—giving equity-rich buyers continued advantages. Interest rates held at historic lows, though predictions of increases persisted. First-time buyers still faced challenges, but the combination of stable prices and increased inventory created more opportunities than the prior two years. RAM's advice remained urgent: "The opportunity is fading quickly."

What It Meant for Sellers

Sellers adjusted to the new reality of stable rather than rising prices. The days of automatic appreciation were over—competitive pricing became essential again. Days on market stretched to 153 for residential (up from 103) as the market normalized. Well-priced properties still attracted multiple offers and sold efficiently, but overpriced listings faced longer waits. The distressed competition was nearly eliminated, giving traditional sellers clearer market positioning. Sellers with Canadian buyer connections faced potential headwinds as currency dynamics shifted buying power.

December Snapshot

• Single-family: 92 sales · median $545,788 · 153 days on market
• Condominiums: 101 sales · median $410,000 · 109 days on market
• Land: 16 sales · median $520,000 · 139 days on market

Jolanta's Reflection

I remember telling clients that year that the wild ride was settling down—and that wasn't a bad thing. The buyers who had been priced out by the rapid appreciation finally had a chance to compete. Some of my seller clients needed recalibration on expectations, but those who priced realistically found eager buyers. It felt like a sustainable market again, which was a relief after years of uncertainty in both directions.