The Number That Tells the Story

What Happened

The 2017 market story wasn't about prices or sales—it was about what wasn't there to sell. Single-family sales edged up 2.1% to 1,099 homes, while condos surged 10.8% to 1,451 units. Land transactions jumped 36.4% to 221 lots. But these gains came despite shrinking inventory, not because of abundant supply. Condo inventory dropped a stunning 27.2% to just 638 active listings. Home inventory fell 6.4% to 529 listings. The market was consuming inventory faster than sellers could replenish it.

Prices reflected the tightening supply. The residential median rose 8.8% to $695,000, approaching the $700,000 threshold that December 2016 had briefly touched. Average prices climbed 5.8% to $1,024,271—the first time annual averages exceeded $1 million. Condo medians increased 7.2% to $445,000 with averages up 10.4% to $681,957. Total residential dollar volume reached $1.126 billion, while condo volume hit $989.5 million (+22.3%)—both record figures.

Months of supply told the clearest story: residential dropped to 5.5 months (down 15.4%), condos fell to 5.1 months (down 36.3%). Anything below 6 months traditionally favors sellers. Maui was now decisively in seller's market territory for both categories. Days on market improved for homes (146 days, down 8.2%) while condos showed mixed signals. Housing affordability continued its decline, with the index dropping to 56 for single-family and 88 for condos.

RAM noted strong buyer demand despite "higher mortgage rates that are likely to increase further in 2018." Unemployment remained low, wages showed improvement, and consumer confidence held steady. The report struck a "cautiously optimistic" tone, predicting more listing activity from confident sellers in 2018—though whether supply could match demand remained the central question.

Wailea & Mākena

The luxury condo market showed exceptional strength. Sales jumped 34.3% to 141 units with medians rising 7% to $1,150,000 and averages climbing 21.4% to $1.70 million. Single-family activity increased to 28 sales with average prices reaching $4.48 million (+16.5%), though the median dipped to $2,243,500—reflecting sales mix rather than market weakness. Total Wailea/Mākena condo volume reached $239.1 million, up 63% from the prior year. The resort corridor was benefiting from the same inventory dynamics as the broader market, with limited luxury supply meeting strong demand.

What It Meant for Buyers

Competition intensified as inventory shrank. With months of supply below 6 across categories, buyers faced multiple-offer situations on well-priced properties. The shrinking pool of available homes meant less selection and less negotiating leverage. RAM emphasized getting pre-approved before shopping—with fewer listings and faster transactions, hesitation meant missing opportunities. Rising mortgage rates added urgency: waiting meant both higher prices and higher borrowing costs. The affordability index continued its decline, pushing more first-time buyers to the sidelines.

What It Meant for Sellers

The market had shifted decisively in sellers' favor. With inventory at multi-year lows and demand remaining strong, properly-priced homes sold efficiently. The 96.7% list-to-sale price ratio indicated sellers were achieving near-asking prices. However, RAM's familiar advice still applied: overpriced listings still sat while well-priced properties attracted multiple offers. Days on market of 146 for homes meant patient sellers still got strong results. The outlook for 2018 suggested even tighter conditions ahead.

December Snapshot

• Single-family: 88 sales · median $695,500 · 148 days on market
• Condominiums: 138 sales · median $440,000 · 191 days on market
• Land: 22 sales · median $475,000

Jolanta's Reflection

By 2017, I was having a different conversation with buyers than I'd had just two years earlier. It wasn't about finding good deals anymore—it was about being ready to move fast when the right property appeared. The inventory squeeze was real, and clients who hesitated watched properties slip away. For sellers, it was finally their market, but I still counseled patience and proper pricing. Even in a tight market, the fundamentals of good preparation mattered.