The Number That Tells the Story

What Happened

2025 was the year the post-pandemic repricing fully arrived. Single-family closed sales fell 5.9% to 708 transactions island-wide. The median held relatively steady at $1,295,000 — down just 0.4% — but days on market stretched to 136 on average, up 9.7% from 124 the prior year. Months of supply for single-family reached 8.0 — up 23.1% from 6.5 in 2024 — firmly in buyer's market territory. New listings rose modestly (+1.3% to 1,199), pending sales fell 7.4% to 673, and the percent of list price received declined to 96.0% from 97.4%. Sellers were conceding more ground at the negotiating table than at any point since 2019.

The condominium market told the harder story. Condo closed sales fell 18.0% to 699 transactions — a significant pullback from 852 the prior year. The median dropped 23.0% to $692,860 from $900,000. The average fell 22.0% to $1,107,828. Days on market for condos reached 148, up 28.7%. Condo inventory closed the year at 920 active listings — up 18.4% — with months of supply at a striking 15.8, up 29.5% from 12.2 the year before. The condominium correction was real, sustained, and the deepest since the 2008-2009 cycle.

Land sales declined 19.6% to 152 transactions. The land median fell 26.6% to $635,000 from $865,000, and average prices dropped 29.7% to $1,273,478. Across all property types combined, the island-wide median was $990,000 — down 12.6% from $1,132,500 — on 1,559 closed sales, a 13.1% decline. Inventory of all types combined closed December at 1,574 active listings, up 15.7%, with 12.5 months of supply.

The housing affordability index showed a counterintuitive improvement — rising to 32 for single-family (+3.2%) and 61 for condos (+38.6%) — reflecting that lower prices and relatively stable rates were improving purchasing power for those who could qualify, even as overall transaction volume declined.

Wailea & Mākena

The luxury corridor underwent its own significant recalibration. Wailea/Mākena single-family sales fell 33.3% to 18 transactions, with a YTD median of $3,662,500 — down 22.1% from $4,700,000 the prior year. The average reached $5,834,744. The message from the data was clear: the extraordinary premiums of 2022 and 2023 were being repriced. Condo sales in the corridor dropped 50.3% to 75 transactions. The condo median came in at $2,300,000 — down 8.0% from $2,500,000 — with the average at $3,034,777, down 12.0%. Wailea/Mākena land saw 15 sales versus 42 the prior year (-64.3%), with a median of $4,250,000 — down 10.5% from $4,750,000. The land market in the corridor was the most selective it had been in years, with serious buyers for genuinely exceptional parcels still transacting at meaningful prices.

What It Meant for Buyers

2025 offered the most negotiating leverage buyers had seen since 2019. With 8.0 months of single-family supply and 15.8 months of condo supply, buyers had time, options, and room to negotiate. Days on market extended significantly — meaning properly researched offers with inspection contingencies and reasonable terms were being considered seriously. For buyers who had been priced out or frustrated during 2021 and 2022, 2025 represented a genuine re-entry window, particularly in the condo market where the 23% decline in median prices was the most dramatic repricing in the cycle.

What It Meant for Sellers

Sellers who priced to where the market was — not where it had been in 2022 — were still closing. The 96.0% list-to-sale ratio for single-family and 94.6% for condos meant well-priced properties were selling within a reasonable range of asking. The sellers who struggled were those anchored to peak prices. With months of supply above 8 for homes and above 15 for condos, overpriced listings accumulated days on market and stigma. The correction rewarded realistic sellers and punished optimistic ones.

December Snapshot

• Single-family: 66 sales · median $1,340,000 (-2.0%) · 128 days on market · 450 active listings · 8.0 months supply
• Condominiums: 75 sales · median $640,000 (-25.6%) · 162 days on market · 920 active listings · 15.8 months supply
• Land: 19 sales · median $609,000
• All properties combined: 160 closed · median $989,500 (-1.5%) · 148 days on market · 1,574 active · 12.5 months supply

Jolanta's Feedback

I have watched Maui real estate through corrections before — 2006, 2008, 2009. Each one felt definitive at the time. Each one eventually gave way to the next cycle. What I observed in 2025 was a market finding honest footing after years of extraordinary acceleration. The buyers who came to the table in 2025 with clear heads, realistic expectations, and genuine conviction about the properties they were buying were making the kind of decisions I respect. Not chasing the market up. Not waiting for a bottom that nobody can call. Moving thoughtfully, with information, on the right property for their life.