The Number That Tells the Story

What Happened

2009 was the trough year — and the first year that contained within it genuine signals of recovery. Single-family unit sales fell 24% from 910 to 693. The median dropped 14% to $498,106 and the average fell 14% to $713,946. Total residential dollar volume declined 35% to $494,764,887. Those numbers were difficult. And yet embedded in the December data was something different: 90 residential sales — a 17-month high. Buyers who had watched from the sidelines for two years were beginning to move.

Condo sales told the clearest story of a turning point. Total units sold rose 4% — from 790 to 824 — the first year-over-year gain in any major category since the peak. Median condo price fell 18% to $450,000 and the average declined 22% to $719,993, reflecting how much inventory remained to absorb. But the unit count gain mattered: buyers were finding value and acting on it.

Land remained the most distressed segment. Unit sales edged up 10% to 109, but the median fell 31% to $485,000. Absorption rate for land stood at 58 months — nearly five years of supply at December's sales pace. The land speculation that had characterized the 2004–2006 boom was entirely absent from the 2009 market. RAM's overview was direct: the market was "getting its footing" as sales increased and inventory declined, but median prices were "bouncing along the bottom." Short sales and REO (bank-owned) properties remained significant in the inventory mix throughout the year.

Congress extended the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit through April 30, 2010 — up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for qualifying existing homeowners — which provided measurable support to the market's lower price tiers heading into the new year.

Wailea & Mākena

The luxury corridor absorbed significant correction in 2009. Wailea/Mākena single-family sales fell 28% to 18 transactions and the median declined 34% to $1,525,000 from $2,300,000. Condo sales dropped 60% to 71 transactions with a median of $1,315,000 — down 40% from $2,200,000 in 2008. The buyers who had pushed luxury condo medians to record heights during the financial crisis of 2008 had stepped back. Land, however, showed a remarkable reversal: 19 transactions, up from just 4 the prior year, as select buyers recognized value in Wailea/Mākena parcels at median land prices of $1,835,000.

What It Meant for Buyers

By late 2009 the case for buying had become compelling for those who could act. Prices were at multi-year lows. Interest rates were historically low. Inventory was high. The federal tax credit added additional incentive at the entry level. RAM's message was unambiguous: "This low point in the market is your rare chance, so don't delay." For Wailea and Mākena in particular, buyers willing to engage at adjusted prices were finding properties that had not been accessible since before the boom.

What It Meant for Sellers

Short sales and foreclosures continued to pressure pricing throughout the year. Sellers who priced to the current market — not to where prices had been — were closing. Sellers who treated the listing process as exploratory were advised by RAM to step aside and clear the market for those who genuinely needed to sell. The absorption rate math was stark: at December's pace, it would take 11 months to clear residential inventory and 18.6 months to clear condo inventory.

December Snapshot

• Single-family: 90 sales (17-month high) · median $477,000 · 154 days on market
• Condominiums: 80 sales · median $401,500 · 170 days on market
• Land: 9 sales · median $305,000 · 111 days on market

Jolanta's Feedback

December 2009 felt different from every December before it in that cycle. Ninety residential sales in a single month — after years of watching the numbers fall — was a signal I paid close attention to. The buyers who came to the table that year and in early 2010, when most people were still too cautious to move, were the ones who made some of the most thoughtful decisions of the entire era. The recovery that followed was not sudden — nothing in real estate ever is — but it was real, and it had started.