The Number That Tells the Story

What Happened

After 2021's historic frenzy, 2022 was the year the market had to reckon with gravity. SF sales fell from 1,378 to 1,023 — a 25.8% decline — though the median price still rose 11% to $1,105,000. Condo sales plummeted from 2,315 to 1,519, down 34.4%, as rate-sensitive buyers retreated. The condo median hit $775,000, up 19.2% year-over-year — prices were still appreciating even as volume fell, a classic sign of a market in transition rather than collapse. Days on market began lengthening. Multiple-offer situations became less common. Waived inspection contingencies, once the norm, were negotiated back into contracts. Cash buyers — who had been dominant through 2021 — retained their advantage, but financed buyers were no longer systematically excluded.

The Housing Affordability Index reached historic lows as rate increases compounded years of price appreciation. First-time and entry-level buyers were effectively priced out of most segments.

Wailea & Mākena

The luxury corridor felt 2022's shift but absorbed it well. SF: 33 units, median $3,500,000, volume $247.8 million — down from 2021's extraordinary activity but still extraordinary by any historical measure. Condos: 130 units, median $1,757,500, volume $359.9 million. Buyers in the Wailea/Mākena segment remained active. Many transactions in this corridor are not financed, which historically reduces sensitivity to mortgage rate changes.

What It Meant for Buyers

The first real negotiating room in three years returned — cautiously, then more clearly. Properties sat longer. Sellers made concessions on terms and occasionally on price. The urgency that had defined 2021 evaporated. For buyers who had been sidelined by the frenzy, the shift offered re-entry — though at prices significantly higher than 2019 levels and with monthly payments inflated by rising rates.

What It Meant for Sellers

Sellers who had bought in 2019 or earlier remained in a strong equity position despite the slowdown. Those who had bought at 2021 peak prices found a market that no longer supported their acquisition costs. Pricing right became essential again; the era of automatic multiple offers was over.

December Snapshot

• Single-family: 66 sales · median $1,081,250 · DOM elevated
• Condominiums: 69 sales · median $770,000 · DOM elevated
• Land: Data from RAM year-end report

Jolanta's Reflection

After two years of a market that felt almost out of control, 2022 brought something I had almost forgotten: patience. Buyers had time to think. Sellers had to listen. I welcomed the recalibration — not because the market was weaker, but because a market where everyone can breathe produces better decisions for everyone. The clients who bought thoughtfully in late 2022, when fear was creeping back in, positioned themselves well for what followed.